Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Second MH17 BUK trail photo from July 17th

Here is a copy of the original second photo of the BUK missile trail that had shot down MH17:

Download copy of original photo (4928 x 3264 pixels).

EXIF information has been removed so it will not be able to trace it back to the photographer.

Russian Propaganda Trolls have long argued that this photo was fake, because there were clouds above the area and those were not visible in the first photo.
This second photo clearly shows how there are indeed clouds above the area, which is compatible with the weather conditions at that time and day. The first photo had zoomed in on the horizon where only haze was apparent.

Also see an interview with the photographer.
Also see the wheater conditions at the launch site.
Also see how I based on the first photo determined the launch location.

ALL relevant blogs about MH17 can be found here.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Interview with eyewitness who made the photo of the BUK trail

This is a translation of the Dutch article of RTL-nieuws on http://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/binnenland/ooggetuige-mh17-mijn-doel-rechtvaardigheid 
The interview has been done by Olaf Koens @OBK.

(This article is translated without permission (yet) and therefore risks to get removed. I think the relevance of it is much bigger than just for the Dutch audience alone and therefore it needs an English translation. Official permission is pending... So enjoy this as long as it lasts...
You may also visit the original article with the link above and use Google autotranslate.)

MH17 eye-witness: "my goal is justice".

An inhabitant of East-ukraine heard a big bang, when MH17 was shot down. Shortly after he took some photos that indicated the airplane was shot down from Russian-rebel-held area. Journalist Olaf Koens talked with him.

Can you explain what you experienced on July 17th?
"That day did not foretell anything special would happen. In the morning I woke up and went to my work. At four ó  clock in the afternoon I arrived home. And at 16:20 we heard an explosion. The first explosion was not very heavy. 15 seconds later, something like that, there was a second explosion, which was louder and it made the windows shake."

What did you do when you heard the explosion?
"Explosions were no exception anymore. But this was totally different, that explosion. It did not sound like anything we heard before. I immediately wanted to look where the sound came from. What had exploded? Where? What? How? I ran to the covered balcony. I looked around en saw nothing.

I photographed that white trail in the air. At that moment I did not know what it meant. For me it was just a white trail: from the horizon up into the clouds where it diverged. Only after a while it became clear what it was."

How much time was there between the explosion and the photo?
"That was a minute after the explosions, I think. Maybe even less, something like 30 seconds."

You were there alone?
"I was the only one on the balcony. But the other inhabitants all were also on their balconies. Behind every window you could see a face."

There are more people who saw the trail at that moment?
"Yes, yes"

There are more people who photographed the same?
"That is very well possible. But at that time, July 17th, there were already rumours in the city that making photos was not really safe. It was being said: don't make photos if you don't want to end up in 'uncomfortable situations'. At that moment the city was already occupied. At the administration building there was a flag and it was not a Ukrainian."

Do you still have the camera with which you took the photos?
"I contacted a friend of mine and gave him the photos, including the originals. That friend contacted the SBU and they were interested in the photos. He handed them over to the SBU. After that I had to explain the details of the photo to them and hand the camera over to them."

Did they compensate you for this? 
"To replace it? Of course. They paid the value of the camera back to me."

Did you make private copies?
"Sure. But I had to give them the flash-cards too."

And after that you went to Kiev?
"Yes, in the beginning I directly spoke to with the SBU. After that representatives of the international investigation committee contacted me via the SBU. That was beginning of August, when I also handed them the camera. THe SBU didn't need it themselves and gave it to the Dutch researches. They had asked for the camera."

Did the researchers talk to you?
"Yes, I talked extensively with the researchers of the international committee. Those were two researchers: one from the Netherlands and one from Australia. We talked about three hours and it was recorded with a video camera."

Do you think they can use your material?
"Yes I think they will use it. The photos are circumstantial evidence. There are no other photos available that proof that this BUK launched something in that area. While everybody knows what the truth is, there is no other evidence."

Why did you agree to have this interview?
"I want justice. I want that the people who did this will be judged.

Are you hopeful about that?
"I think the truth will prevail whatever happens."

Also The Dutch NOS has published a very short video with an additional photo that had been taken at th same time and a short interview with the photographer (in Russian with Dutch subtitles).
You can find the original article in Dutch video here.

This is the extra photo:

Since the trail is not visible very will, the NOS made an enhanced/darkened photo so the trail is better visible:

Also it is clear from this photo that ABOVE in the sky clouds can already be seen. At the crash site 20 kms further North it was cloudy at that time.

This is zoomed in on the horizon:

This second photo shows enough similarity with the first one, that there does not have to be any doubt about its authenticity.

A copy of the original 2nd photo can be downloaded here.

This interview with the photographer, his witness report and the fact that a SECOND photo was taken so shortly after the incident should remove all doubt that these photos are authentic. They show a surface to air missile trail. We know a BUK was in that area, the only thing that could have shot down MH17.
So: a BUK missile was fired from (Russian) occupied territory that shot down MH17.

More info:

Also see how I determined the launch location based on the first photo.

ALL relevant blogs about MH17 can be found here.

Friday, December 19, 2014

Russia transported T-64A tanks into Ukraine first half of december

This photo shows a t-64 transport in Russia:
Link to photo.
Link to original.

The next photos show the same transport:
This tweet with link to location on Google Maps shows this transport was indeed near Sambek before Taganrog in Russia:

This is a video from this transport:

These screenshots show some distinctive markings on the sides of these tanks:

These markings can also be seen on this tank:

Or this one:

Link to photo - Link to original.

The location of these photos is here:

Link to Google maps.
The environment on the background matches this location:

This photo has the exact same position:

Link to photo - Link to original.

Some building like that can be seen at that crossing, so the photo could very well have been taken like this:

Red = tent in the bushes. Blue = camera position.

There is a telephone number on the building, which can also be seen in this advertisement:

Which is in Sverdlosk region. The same area as where the photos were reported:

So this is a confirmation that the location is correct.

This is another photo of one of these T-64As:

Link to photo - Link to original.

The geotag is at exactly the same crossing.

JUST IN: And here is the final proof. A video of exactly that location with the tanks and the building: https://vk.com/video51664536_170659922

Russia has been transporting T-64A tanks into Ukraine in the first half of December.

Also see this:

Also see: Russia moves more T-64s and GRADs towards Ukraine
Also see: Evidence that Russia is transporting back its destroyed tanks
Also see: Russians film their own large columns on the move in Ukraine...

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Evidence that Russia is transporting back its destroyed tanks

During the war between Russia and Ukraine there have been numerous reports of heavy Russian losses as well as in lives, as in hardware. We know that Russia is trying to hide it's dead soldiers and the numbers of them. Now there is evidence too that they are hiding their losses in vehicles too.

First of all there is this website www.lostarmour.info, that supposedly keeps track of all the destroyed vehicles. Yet this seems to be a Russian propaganda site. The majority of vehicles are reported to be Ukrainian. Only a few are Russian. It's simple: in case of doubt, mark it as Ukrainian...

But there is more.

This photo shows why:

The photo is not geotagged.
But there is another photo in his album that IS:

Link to VK-photoLink to original.

The location is here:

Google maps link.

It is a place near a military airport, where military hardware is stored.

Note that the tank at the right on the background of that geotagged photo has the same characteristics, such as the wheels as the first one on top of this blog. Indicating it is the same type.

Millerovo is like a hub for military transports to and from the conflict area in Ukraine.

Now note the sign on the destroyed tank:

This sign could also be seen in the video of the HUGE convoy that headed back to Russia on Sept 2nd as reported in this blog.

Three such tanks were filmed with this sign:

At 2:03:

At 2:38:

At 2:45:

None of these three is EXACTLY the same as the one in Millerovo, but it still COULD be, if the Millerovo one had been damaged or stripped further after transport.

Nevertheless, we can conclude that the Millerovo one is from the same batch as has been seen in Ukraine.

But the second tank in the convoy video is interesting. It is on a loader. A closer look reveals this:

It doesn't not have tracks on one side and the two front wheels are gone...
This one definitely has been hit or ran on a landmine. And it is transported back to Russia.

Similar tanks with identical markings are seen as well on transport in Ukraine as in Russia. Such damaged vehicles are seen on a loader in Ukraine as was as in Russia. Whether it these are EXACTLY the same vehicles is not important. They are from the same batch/group.

Russia is taking its damaged vehicles from the battlefield back to Russia. They are NOT being repaired in 'local separatists workshops'.
They are taken back to hide the fact that they had been there and also to hide the number of destroyed/damaged vehicles.

So this is another reason why www.lostarmour.com has so little destroyed Russian armour.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Russia moves more T-64s and GRADs towards Ukraine

This video shows a Russian transport:

8 T-64 tanks can be seen on loaders:

And one BTR:

It is reported to be on the road from Rostov to Taganrog.

There are no distinctive landmarks in the video, but it must be possible to locate it by the position of the trees.

Here we have a match:

The screenshots are flipped horizontally to make the graphic a bit more clear and with the satellite image in a position to give it a natural look.

Google maps link.

On a larger scale it looks like this:

It may be clear that Russia is bringing these T-64s closer to Ukraines border, if they are not already IN Ukraine by now.
On the video there is no snow visible, so it may have been taken a couple of weeks earlier.

Earlier a transport of some 75 vehicles, among which 7 tanks (T-64 and T-72) had been transported from Donetsk to the South. It was still a question whether that convoy might have returned to Russia.

But now these tanks are driven TOWARDS Ukraine it seems more obvious Russia is building up a substantial attack force near Mariupol.

These GRADs are also driving TOWARDS Ukraine:

The reason why the camera is positioned like this, and not on the (very similar) other side, is because there is only a slope on this side (blue lines).

Also a helicopter is spotted:

Friday, December 12, 2014

Russians film their own large columns on the move in Ukraine...

This video is obviously filmed by the Russians themselves to give the impression that they retreat. But of course they could easily take the next turn back.


Videos are filmed by a SOLDIER from within a military truck. Yes it happens more often that soldiers put selfies online that expose their location. But not in such a way that they inform us about the next attack they are going to make.

To Mariupol
That giraffe truck has been spotted more than once in Donetsk region:
So these are definitely vehicles in East Ukraine.


These videos have been filmed in very close proximity to the convoy. A soldier/cossack can be seen next to the cameraman. The video is recorded with TWO cameras and it is smartly edited in such a way that it appears there are more.

All these videos are filmed by the Russians!! Video #1 by a reporter. Video #2 and #3 by a soldier/ Video #4 and 5 are filmed with two camera's, cut, edited. In general amateurs/civilians do not edit their videos.

So clearly the Russians WANT US to see that they are moving. Texts on tanks like 'To Mariupol' should ALWAYS be ignored. They do not reveal their current battle plan.

My impression is that the Russians want to make us believe that they are retreating their troops.

Well... mr. Putin and mr. Lavrov... we ONLY believe that if we see these tanks driving in Rostov... NOT somewhere in Ukraine!!!

This image shows ALL vehicles from VIDEO #2 (going from top right to bottom left):

These are:
  1. Ural without hood towing gun
  2. small car
  3. Ural with hood towing gun
  4. Ural with hood
  5. BMP
  6. Ural with hood
  7. Ural with hood
  8. Kamaz with hood
  9. Ural without hood
  10. BMP
  11. Ural with hood
  12. Ural with hood
  13. square car
  14. Kamaz with hood
  15. Kamaz ZU-23
  16. BMP
  17. car
  18. BMP
  19. Ural with hood
  20. BMP
  21. BMP
  22. ??
  23. BMP
There are only two trucks towing a gun and the first is an Ural without a hood. 

In VIDEO #4 there is one such Ural at 00:49. From there, the order is like this:
  1. Ural without hood towing gun
  2. Ural with hood towing gun
    -cut in video-
  3. BMP
  4. Ural with hood
  5. Ural with hood
  6. Ural with hood
  7. Kamaz with hood
    - cut -
  8. square car
  9. BMP
  10. Ural with hood
  11. Ural with hood
  12. van with hood
  13. Ural with hood
  14. Kamaz (possibly with ZU-23
  15. BMP
  16. car
  17. BMP
  18. BMP
  19. BMP
  20. BMP
    - cut -
  21. BMP
  22. BMP
  23. BMP
  24. Ural with light hood
  25. Ural with hood
  26. Ural with hood
  27. Ural with hood towing gas

Now these two orders can be matches like this:

Only four vehicles need to find another place to match up. And then two vehicles are not accounted for, but these occur exactly where there is a cut in the video, so these might have been missed, or deliberately cut out.

Videos #2, #3, #4 and #5 all show parts of the same convoy!!!

UPDATE 20-12
A new movie appeared with the tanks seen above, where one has broken down and gets assistance from others to get towed:
This is at a gas station near Starobesheve:

The tanks are facing into the direction of Mariupol. There were rumors that a vehicle had broken down at that time, so likely this one was it.

Therefore this video must have been filmed BEFORE the videos above. Unfortunately this means it does not tell us anything about where these tanks are now...

Google Earth shows Pantsir anti-air near Ukrainian border on August 26th

A Pantsir-team has been discovered near Donetsk in Russia:
Some further away one has been spotted too:

And this one is even much closer to the border:

That last photo must have been taken somewhere in this area:

Google maps link.

That satellite image is from August 26th. One day before that photo was taken! So maybe the Pantsir is still there?

And yes, look here. On Aug 8th image... nothing:

August 26th image shows a vehicle:

August 31st image shows it's gone again. So it is a vehicle, not a building.

It has dimensions that fits with a Pantsir.
That location is NOT a typical road that leads from A to B. It is a hidden position near a lake. So definitely this is a firing position.
It is even relatively close to a residential neighborhood. Russia doesn't even care about it's own citizens... if there ever would have come return fire on this thing.

Also a radar system has been spotted on July 18th (thanks to @stabilizec):

The distance is some 18 kms. This might be within operational range, which means these systems could have connected to communicate with each other and share information about air traffic.

So it must be clear that Russia has Pantsir anti-air systems on the border with Ukraine in attack positions.

This puts new light on the downing of the AN-26 on July 14th (3 days before MH17). It has always been thought that a BUK brought it down, since that was the only thing capable of doing so and present in the area. But now it is clear that a Pantsir(-team) is in the area, it may very well have been a Pantsir that did this.

See this blog about the AN-26.

This also indicates that the BUK that brought down MH17 may have connected to a Russian radar on Russian territory, since it's distance to the Russian border was also some 17 kms.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Analysis of shelling at Pervomaisk of Dec 7th

On Dec 7th Pervomaisk has been heavily shelled. Three videos show the destruction.

VIDEO 1 shows the most impacts throughout the city:

Almost all of these impacts can be geolocated.

Video #2 also shows  several impacts, starting with 'the collapsed apartment':

Video #3 is from Dec 8th and shows how people clear the destruction at the 'collapsed apartment' and recover two dead women (which are shown at the end of the video):

All these impacts seem to be from GRAD rockets.

Here is the mapping of almost all shelling of video #1:

More details of the Northern part:

As can be seen two buildings perpendicular to each other are hit on one side. If these impacts are made by the same attack from the same direction (which is likely), then this limits the possible direction quite a lot. 
The yellow lines indicate the limits from what direction the rockets may have come.
It looks like they must have come from the NorthWest - North.

But the 6:02 impact is a special case:

Since it impacted on the ground and the buildings are quite high and it was quite close to the buildings, it could ONLY have gone through the gap between those buildings. Or otherwise it would have hit those buildings. See the long red line in the image above. (Note that there is actually more space than it seems on that image, because the top of the buildings shifted a little bit from their real place, because the satellite took the images at an angle.)
It means this particular one came from almost exact Northern direction.

When we extend that northern line and zoom out, it looks like this:

Orange line = approximate front line according to Russian Propaganda site MilitaryMaps.

It comes from the direction of Zolote.
Could the Russian terrorists have fired these shots?

Yes, easily.
This zoomed in map shows that they can find several concealed positions from where they can fire without too much risk of return fire, because there are a lot of trees around:

The Southern impacts look like this:

Two sides of the same apartment building have been hit. That means it must have come from SW direction, but it can not be narrowed down as much as the Northern ones.

It looks more like this:

Red lines = cone of directions that could possibly hit both sides.

On a larger scale that looks like this:

Distance to the front line is 10 to 16 kms.
Could the Russians have fired these? Easily.

One thing is absolutely clear. This is a different attack. The northern and southern shells come from DIFFERENT sources/directions. They could not have all come from the same direction, because different facing sides of buildings have been hit.

Collapsed apartments
When we look at the impact of the apartments, we see this:

Two sides are damaged:

The whole wall with windows has been blown out:

The debris of the windows lies on the opposite side of the street:

There must have been an explosion INSIDE that blew all this so far away.

On the other side the wall has been completely blown away:

So much that the floor has partly come down and another part risks to fall down as well:

And all the debris seems to lay outwards: 

To be honest... such TOTAL destruction does not seem like the result of a GRAD actually:

Look at all the other impacts in the videos. They are relatively small compared to this.

The only explanation can be that something exploded INSIDE and the air pressure blew out the side and front walls. But could a GRAD rocket do that?
Maybe it was more than one rocket...? Maybe it was a really poor construction anyway...? 

It would be really strange if a GRAD rocket first penetrated the big outer wall and then exploded inside. So maybe a rocket entered through the window and then exploded inside?
If so, it must have been a 'lucky shot' because it also had to enter through the next door, since that one is still standing:

Such things are not impossible though. Shells and rockets land on the weirdest places, just wherever they land.

But we also see this:

There is a pattern of small impacts and holes on the outer wall. THAT indicates something exploded OUTSIDE. But the pattern is quite irregular and strange.

Conclusion: something exploded outside AND something exploded inside...?
It's a mess...
For now let's say that 2 or more GRAD rockets hit this building.

From which direction?
If the outside pattern was created by an exploding GRAD, it must have come perpendicular on the planar that goes through all impact areas. Meaning it must come somewhere from W to SW.
If the other GRAD went through the window and the door it must have come from SW to S.

That means if both GRADs were fired (almost) simultaneously, then they must have come from the SW:

And THAT means they could have been fired by the same launcher as the other southern impacts, with only a minor adjustment for range.

Pervomaisk has been attacked by GRAD rockets from (at least) two different sides. Technically, these COULD have been fired by Ukrainians and they COULD have been fired by Russians.

But it is not likely that Ukrainians did this. It is a random attack on a non-military target with zero military advantage and with a HUGE effect on lost-Western-support and food-for-Kremlin-trolls and you name it.
WHY ON EARTH would they be so stupid to do that?

You can say a lot about Poroshenko, but it is clear that he is NOT a warlord. He is NOT an army general who WANTS to fight. He is NOT a warmonger.
He wants peace. He wants to do business. He orders unilateral cease-fires for crying out loud. When was the last time you heard him say: "Let's just kill all the bastards!"
No, Poroshenko holds peace-talks in Minsk. He does not want to fight. He does not want to randomly kill civilians.

Yet, on the other hand, there are MANY examples of Russians killing innocents (or their own), not caring about them etcetera, deliberately shelling civilian areas, you name it.

So based on directions, we can not conclude who did it. But based on history and track record, it must be clear: the Russians are messing with civilian lives again and they manage to make a good show of it...!

If anybody wants to proof that Ukraine is doing such ridiculous things, you will have to come with SOLID UNDENIABLE proof. Or else just be silent... :D.

A video with English subtitles has been released which is quite revealing:

Do you appreciate this and other articles? Do you think it is important that this information is published?
I'm not working for a newspaper or magazine. If you sponsor me, you help me to keep this blog up and running.
See the Paypal Donate-button in the top right side of this blog or subscribe in the About-me-section.